AI Could Threaten Up to 5.5 Million Jobs in Poland Within a Decade, PIE and IMF Report Finds

The Polish Economic Institute (Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny, PIE) has published a report titled "AI on the Polish Labor Market," finding that nearly 3.68 million Poles currently work in the twenty occupations most exposed to the effects of artificial intelligence. On top of that, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that within 5 to 10 years, as many as 5.5 million people, about 32 percent of all employed workers in the country, could lose their jobs.

The report, cited by Gazeta Prawna and Forsal.pl, combines data from the Polish Economic Institute with International Monetary Fund forecasts and results from the "Polish Labor Market Barometer" compiled by staffing agency Personnel Service. The authors stress that change in the Polish labor market has already begun, and that AI is not a distant scenario but a process that has been underway for several years and is accelerating as generative tools become cheaper and more capable.

Which Jobs Are Most at Risk

The list of occupations most exposed to automation includes retail, customer service, telemarketing, transport, including taxi drivers and delivery drivers, manufacturing, warehouse workers, and office roles long considered stable: finance workers, accountants, auditors, secretaries, office assistants and legal assistants. It's this last group that comes as the biggest surprise, since until recently it was seen as resistant to automation because of the education and experience it requires.

The report's authors contrast that list with relatively safe occupations, where direct human contact, manual dexterity and improvisation matter most. They cite doctors, surgeons, nurses, caregivers for the elderly, psychologists and therapists, as well as plumbers, electricians, hairdressers, artists and chefs. In these professions, machines still play the role of a supporting tool rather than a full replacement.

A Gap Between Studies

The World Economic Forum, cited in the report in its "The Future of Jobs 2023" study, pointed to a different breakdown of the labor market: 74 percent of experts predict growing demand for analytical thinking, and 75 percent of companies highlight the rising importance of creativity as a future skill. This suggests that the effects of automation are not limited to job cuts, but above all involve a shift in the profile of skills required.

On the other hand, the report states that as many as 12 percent of workers in Poland personally know someone who lost their job to automation in the past year. That figure shows the phenomenon is no longer an abstract forecast but a tangible experience for part of the Polish labor market, even though it still affects a minority of employees.

Some workers will benefit from the changes, others will feel them painfully - Krzysztof Inglot, Personnel Service

What It Means for Polish Companies

For employers, the key takeaway from the report is that the stakes extend beyond physical or repetitive positions and reach mid-level office roles as well, including accounting, legal support and administration. Companies that are already investing in reskilling their staff have a chance to limit the scale of layoffs, while those that delay these decisions could find themselves facing sudden workforce restructuring within a few years.

Krzysztof Inglot of Personnel Service notes that Poland's education system is not keeping pace with the speed of change and does not adequately teach future-oriented skills such as analytical thinking, creativity or practical knowledge of AI tools. Without changes to curricula and vocational training, the skills gap between market demands and graduates' preparation could widen.

The report does not point to a single tipping-point date, only a 5-to-10-year horizon over which the effects of AI adoption across companies of all sizes will accumulate. The authors recommend cultivating future-ready skills from an early age and providing systematic training for current employees, treating reskilling as an investment rather than a side cost of digital transformation.

Sources: A Layoff Tsunami Is Coming for These Occupations (gazetaprawna.pl), A Wave of Layoffs Is Coming for These Occupations (forsal.pl)