Polish Economic Institute: AI Threatens Jobs of 3.7 Million Poles, IMF Warns of Up to 5.5 Million

Economic media in Poland are once again sounding the alarm, citing data from the Polish Economic Institute (Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny, PIE) and the International Monetary Fund on the scale of the threat artificial intelligence poses to the domestic labor market. This time the focus is not only on simple, repetitive occupations, but also on positions previously considered resistant to automation, including lawyers, finance professionals and programmers.

Who Is Most at Risk

Among the 20 occupational groups the Polish Economic Institute identifies as most exposed to AI, specialist professions dominate, not just simple office work. The list includes finance professionals, lawyers, public administration officials, administrative specialists and programmers. Digitization is already reducing demand for insurance intermediaries, credit advisors and part of the banking workforce.

In the coming years, a similar transformation could affect accountants and auditors, as algorithms analyzing financial data increasingly take over part of their duties. The Institute notes that the threat is no longer limited to low-skilled occupations, which sets the current wave of automation apart from previous ones.

Relatively Safe Occupations

The report also points to occupations that can feel relatively secure, among them plumbers, electricians, hairdressers, artists and cooks. In these professions, manual skills, creativity and direct contact with other people are key, areas where machines still serve as a tool rather than a full replacement.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly transform the Polish labor market, it simplifies or eliminates some tasks, increases the productivity of part of the workforce and increases pressure to acquire new skills. By 2035, the labor market could have up to 12.5 percent fewer workers than today - Ignacy Święcicki, head of the digital economy team at the Polish Economic Institute

Diverging Forecasts, Same Direction

The gap between the Polish Economic Institute's data and the International Monetary Fund's forecast is considerable, from 3.68 million people currently working in at-risk occupations to 5.5 million jobs that could disappear within 5-10 years. Both figures, however, point to the same direction of change and a scale close to one third of all working people in Poland.

Not all forecasts for the Polish labor market are unambiguously negative. According to the cited data, 4.64 million workers, or 27 percent, could benefit from AI's development thanks to higher productivity and new career opportunities, while 6.87 million people, 40 percent, are unlikely to feel a significant impact of the technology on their jobs in the coming years.

What It Means for Polish Businesses and Workers

For employers in Poland, the report is another signal that workforce planning in finance, legal services or administration should account for the prospect of automating part of these tasks within the next decade, rather than treating AI solely as a tool supporting existing positions. The Institute also stresses growing pressure on workers in at-risk occupations to acquire new skills.

12 percent of working Poles already say they know someone who lost their job to automation in the past year, showing that the phenomenon is not merely a theoretical forecast for the future, but is already becoming noticeable in the immediate surroundings of some workers.

Sources: "A Wave of Layoffs Is Coming in These Professions" (gazetaprawna.pl), Report by the Polish Economic Institute on AI in the Polish Labor Market (instytutsprawobywatelskich.pl)