Samsung, SK Hynix Memory Stockpiles Fall Below 10 Days of Sales

Memory inventories at the world's two largest chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fell below 10 days of sales in the third quarter of 2026. According to analysts at South Korean brokerage KB Securities, that level signals something beyond a simple demand rebound, it could foreshadow an outright physical shortage of available chips on the market.

Ten days from running dry

Ten days of sales is the buffer memory makers have left in warehouses before they run out of finished chips to ship to customers. Under normal conditions, the DRAM and NAND market operates with inventory measured in weeks rather than days. Both Korean giants dropping below that threshold at the same time means production lines are barely keeping pace with orders, and any disruption in the supply chain would quickly translate into shortages for buyers.

The data comes from a KB Securities report published on September 7, 2026, and has been corroborated by several independent trade outlets, including Digitimes and Seoul Economic Daily. Analysts note that such low inventory levels at both companies simultaneously haven't been seen in years, and the supply pressure now extends beyond specialized HBM memory for AI accelerators to standard server-grade DDR5 DRAM and enterprise-class SSDs as well.

HBM4 eats into capacity

The key driver of the shortage is the shift to HBM4, a new generation of high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI accelerators such as Nvidia's graphics processors. Producing HBM4 requires roughly three times more wafer capacity than manufacturing standard DRAM, since the process involves stacking multiple memory layers into a single module and more complex testing.

As Samsung and SK Hynix shift an increasing share of their fabs toward HBM4 production, less capacity remains for conventional DRAM and NAND memory. The same equipment that once produced standard chips for laptops, phones, or desktop computers is now increasingly serving orders from companies building AI data centers.

The math for 2027

KB Securities forecasts that in 2027, demand growth for DRAM and NAND will outpace supply growth by more than 10 percentage points. In practice, that means even with existing production lines running at full capacity, the amount of memory available for sale on the open market may prove insufficient. The brokerage estimates that memory's share of global AI infrastructure spending will rise from 14 percent in 2025 to 40 percent in 2026, and according to some forecasts as high as 57 percent in 2027. Research firm TrendForce goes further, putting the figure at around 68 percent over the same period.

The possibility of running out of sellable memory next year could become a reality - Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities

Kim Dong-won describes the coming months as the tightest supply conditions the memory industry has ever faced. The scale of investment in AI infrastructure, estimated by KB Securities at around $1.3 trillion in 2026 alone, up 60 percent from a year earlier, means demand for memory is growing faster than any capacity expansion can keep up with.

Impact on the market and consumers

The memory shortage isn't hitting data center builders alone. Makers of computers, phones, and game consoles have for months been signaling rising prices for DRAM modules and SSDs, which directly translate into higher costs for finished electronic devices. If KB Securities' forecasts hold, pricing pressure across the consumer electronics market could persist throughout 2027, and possibly longer.

For tech companies and investors in Poland, the situation carries indirect but real consequences. Domestic electronics makers and server hardware integrators buy memory on the same global market where supply is now being contested by hyperscale AI data centers from Silicon Valley and Asia. Rising memory component prices typically feed through, with a lag of a few months, into the price lists of computers, laptops, and networking equipment sold in Poland as well.

The memory shortage is another sign that the AI boom is starting to have a measurable impact on entire electronics supply chains, reaching well beyond data centers themselves. Analysts have already noted similar strains in power transformers, cooling systems, and copper scrap, whose prices have climbed alongside the pace of AI infrastructure construction.

Neither Samsung nor SK Hynix has so far announced extraordinary measures to ease the shortage, beyond continuing to expand HBM4 production capacity in line with previously announced investment plans. The largest memory buyers are increasingly booking deliveries one to two years in advance, further shrinking the pool of chips available to smaller players on the spot market.